Thirty emerging technology trends will shape global economic growth over the next 15 years, ranging from AI and semiconductors to quantum technologies and humanoid robotics
The next major wave of global economic growth will be driven by 30 emerging technology fields, ranging from AI systems and data centers to semiconductors, energy storage, quantum technologies and humanoid robotics. By 2040, these future markets are expected to exceed EUR 20 trillion in value, almost ten times their current size. Their share of global industrial value creation is projected to rise from roughly 9% today to 37% by 2040, accounting for more than one-third of global industrial output. These are the findings of the new Roland Berger study,“The 2040 Technology Gameplan.”
Among these 30 technology trends, 14 stand out as particularly relevant for industry, with an estimated combined market potential of around EUR 16 trillion by 2040. Semiconductors, AI systems and data centers alone are expected to account for more than half of this total.
Europe Must Play To Its Strengths
Despite its world-class research capabilities and strong industrial base, Europe has lost ground to the United States and China over recent decades. According to the study, the main reasons are insufficient scaling, limited access to growth capital and institutional complexity. At the same time, Europe remains well positioned in a number of future-oriented technology fields, including quantum or medical technologies (MedTech). In these areas, Europe could still achieve global leadership if policymakers and industry players align their efforts more effectively.
«Europe faces a clear mandate for action. Policymakers and industry leaders must work together to create the right conditions for investment and scaling. Otherwise, the value creation generated by the next wave of technology trends will take place elsewhere,» says Felix Mogge, Partner at Roland Berger.
According to the analysis, Europe could capture around 20% of the global industrial market potential represented by the 14 most important technology trends by 2040, equivalent to approximately EUR 3 trillion in value creation.
«Europe has the technologies and the talent to compete for global leadership in a number of fields. The challenge now is to choose the right strategy for each technology area and secure Europe’s long-term competitiveness,» says Stefan Riederle, Partner at Roland Berger.
While China and the United States actively promote and support key future technologies, Europe still lacks a clear industrial strategy in many of these fields. Existing initiatives such as the AI Act, the EU Battery Regulation and the European Chips Act have so far fallen short of their ambitions. The study therefore calls for EU-wide initiatives that enable scale, encourage greater risk-taking and provide long-term certainty for emerging markets.
However, the industry also has a critical role to play. Companies need to place larger bets on future technologies, accelerate the commercialization of innovation and focus more strongly on competitiveness and scaling rather than technical perfection alone.
About the study
The study,“The 2040 Technology Gameplan,” draws on the Roland Berger Advanced Technology Center database containing more than 400 regularly assessed technology trends. Using AI-supported clustering methods and expert interviews, these were narrowed down to 30 key trends expected to shape the coming decades. The technologies were assessed according to three criteria: disruption potential, expected market size by 2040 and commercialization timeline. Fourteen priority technologies were subsequently identified as being particularly relevant for industrial companies and policymakers.
Above, image credited to Roland Berger
